WHAT HAPPENED TO GENERATION NEXT?

Oct. 4, 1999
 
 

                   Sorry we've been gone for a while. We figured
                   that if Pete Sampras and Patrick Rafter could
                   heal their wounds, and if Thomas Muster could
                   disappear altogether, we were entitled to a
                   break after the U.S. Open. But now we're back
                   and pumped.

                   At the close of the U.S. Open, Andre Agassi's
                   coach, Brad Gilbert, talked about how the failure
                   of young prospects to fulfill their potential has
                   allowed older stars such as Agassi and
                   Sampras to compete for Grand Slams titles for
                   another few years. Gilbert said there are three
                   particular players who have not completely lived
                   up to hopes. He wouldn't name the three, but it
                   doesn't stop us from speculating.

                   We think that Marcelo Rios and Mark
                   Philippoussis are undoubtedly two of the three.
                   The third is less clear, but we nominate Thomas
                   Enqvist. Here we will take a look at the leading
                   let-downers in men's tennis. To do this, we are
                   going back a base year, 1995.

                   Philippoussis, probably the hardest hitter on the
                   tour, ended 1995 at No. 32 in the ATP rankings.
                   He had just turned 19 that November, meaning
                   that he was in the top 40 or 50 as a mere
                   18-year-old. He made a lot of waves that year.
                   He gave Sampras a very tough match at the US
                   Open. A few months later, at the Australian
                   Open in 1996, he actually beat Sampras. That
                   was nearly FOUR years ago. Since then, has
                   made very modest improvements. He ended
                   1996 ranked No. 30, just two spots higher than
                   the previous year. In 1997 Philippoussis climbed
                   to No. 18. And he followed that by moving up to
                   15 at year-end 1998. In that year he enjoyed his
                   best showing at a Slam, reaching the finals of
                   the U.S. Open. This year, plagued by injuries,
                   Philippoussis might actually fall in the rankings.
                   Let's tell it like it is: Scud, so far, has been a
                   dud. If you're ranked 32nd when you're barely
                   19, and four years later you're ranked barely
                   inside the top 20 with no Slams to your credit,
                   something is going wrong.

                   The same is true for the 24-year-old Rios, who
                   is about 10 months older than Philippoussis.
                   The Chilean ended the comparison year of 1995
                   ranked 25th. He moved up to 11th in 96, but
                   only one spot to 10th in 97. Last year he broke
                   through in a way, reaching No. 1 and ending the
                   year as No. 2. But his Australian Open final
                   appearance in 1998 was the only time he's even
                   made the semis of a Slam. His failure to reach
                   the final weekend of the big events is starting to
                   take on the look of a huge sack of potatoes on
                   Rios' back.

                   Though Swede Enqvist, at 25, is a bit older than
                   Rios and Philippoussis, he might even be a
                   bigger bust. He ended 1995 ranked No. 7. He
                   was terrific in the year-end ATP championships
                   that year, and everyone predicted great things
                   for him in 1996. But no. He dropped to No. 9 in
                   96, No. 28 in 97 and No. 22 last year. Sure, he
                   has been injured frequently. But erratic play
                   when he's healthy has been just as detrimental.

                   Some promising players have blossomed more
                   recently than 1995 and have been less
                   disappointing. Tim Henman, 25, was ranked just
                   No. 99 at the end of 1995. Carlos Moya, who is
                   actually younger than both Rios and Enqvist but
                   a few months older than Philippoussis, was
                   ranked just 63rd at the end of 95, far below
                   Rios, Enqvist and Philippoussis. But Moya HAS
                   won a Slam (the French), reached the final of
                   another (the Australian) and the semis of
                   another (the U.S. Open).

                   Young Germans Nicolas Kiefer and Tommy
                   Hass weren't even on the radar screen in 1995.
                   Today they're both fighting for positions in the
                   year-end top 8. But they will both face pressure
                   next year to perform better in the Slams --
                   nothwithstanding Haas' semifinal finish at the
                   Aussie this year.

                   Therein lies perhaps the biggest problem among
                   the young stars: They play well at relatively
                   minor tournaments and never seem to peak at
                   the Slams. Rios has shown that he can win
                   virtually any tournament played on clay or
                   hardcourts as long as they're not Grand Slam
                   events. Some of the players, like Rios,
                   Philippoussis and Enqvist, have suffered injuries
                   lately. But the real problem tends to be lack of
                   mental commitment to do well at the Slams.

                   Now, for a look at the future: The two young
                   bucks of the future appear to be Lleyton Hewitt
                   and Marat Safin. They are vastly different
                   players: Safin is stong, with a 6-foot-4 body
                   made to hit winners. Hewitt is a cross between
                   Andre Agassi and Michael Chang. He is a
                   counterpuncher, but extremely tough mentally --
                   a rare commodity these days.

                   Other very young guys who already compete
                   decently on the tour are Belgium's Xavier
                   Malisse, Frenchman Arnaud di Pasquale and
                   Switzerland's Roger Federer. But certainly
                   Hewitt and Safin stand out right now. Of that
                   crop, we say watch out for Hewitt. He could
                   surprise with a great run to the final weekend of
                   the Aussie Open in January.