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Sorry we've been gone for a while. We figured
that if Pete Sampras and Patrick Rafter could
heal their wounds, and if Thomas Muster could
disappear altogether, we were entitled to a
break after the U.S. Open. But now we're back
and pumped.
At the close of the U.S. Open, Andre Agassi's
coach, Brad Gilbert, talked about how the failure
of young prospects to fulfill their potential has
allowed older stars such as Agassi and
Sampras to compete for Grand Slams titles for
another few years. Gilbert said there are three
particular players who have not completely lived
up to hopes. He wouldn't name the three, but it
doesn't stop us from speculating.
We think that Marcelo Rios and Mark
Philippoussis are undoubtedly two of the three.
The third is less clear, but we nominate Thomas
Enqvist. Here we will take a look at the leading
let-downers in men's tennis. To do this, we are
going back a base year, 1995.
Philippoussis, probably the hardest hitter on the
tour, ended 1995 at No. 32 in the ATP rankings.
He had just turned 19 that November, meaning
that he was in the top 40 or 50 as a mere
18-year-old. He made a lot of waves that year.
He gave Sampras a very tough match at the US
Open. A few months later, at the Australian
Open in 1996, he actually beat Sampras. That
was nearly FOUR years ago. Since then, has
made very modest improvements. He ended
1996 ranked No. 30, just two spots higher than
the previous year. In 1997 Philippoussis climbed
to No. 18. And he followed that by moving up to
15 at year-end 1998. In that year he enjoyed his
best showing at a Slam, reaching the finals of
the U.S. Open. This year, plagued by injuries,
Philippoussis might actually fall in the rankings.
Let's tell it like it is: Scud, so far, has been a
dud. If you're ranked 32nd when you're barely
19, and four years later you're ranked barely
inside the top 20 with no Slams to your credit,
something is going wrong.
The same is true for the 24-year-old Rios, who
is about 10 months older than Philippoussis.
The Chilean ended the comparison year of 1995
ranked 25th. He moved up to 11th in 96, but
only one spot to 10th in 97. Last year he broke
through in a way, reaching No. 1 and ending the
year as No. 2. But his Australian Open final
appearance in 1998 was the only time he's even
made the semis of a Slam. His failure to reach
the final weekend of the big events is starting to
take on the look of a huge sack of potatoes on
Rios' back.
Though Swede Enqvist, at 25, is a bit older than
Rios and Philippoussis, he might even be a
bigger bust. He ended 1995 ranked No. 7. He
was terrific in the year-end ATP championships
that year, and everyone predicted great things
for him in 1996. But no. He dropped to No. 9 in
96, No. 28 in 97 and No. 22 last year. Sure, he
has been injured frequently. But erratic play
when he's healthy has been just as detrimental.
Some promising players have blossomed more
recently than 1995 and have been less
disappointing. Tim Henman, 25, was ranked just
No. 99 at the end of 1995. Carlos Moya, who is
actually younger than both Rios and Enqvist but
a few months older than Philippoussis, was
ranked just 63rd at the end of 95, far below
Rios, Enqvist and Philippoussis. But Moya HAS
won a Slam (the French), reached the final of
another (the Australian) and the semis of
another (the U.S. Open).
Young Germans Nicolas Kiefer and Tommy
Hass weren't even on the radar screen in 1995.
Today they're both fighting for positions in the
year-end top 8. But they will both face pressure
next year to perform better in the Slams --
nothwithstanding Haas' semifinal finish at the
Aussie this year.
Therein lies perhaps the biggest problem among
the young stars: They play well at relatively
minor tournaments and never seem to peak at
the Slams. Rios has shown that he can win
virtually any tournament played on clay or
hardcourts as long as they're not Grand Slam
events. Some of the players, like Rios,
Philippoussis and Enqvist, have suffered injuries
lately. But the real problem tends to be lack of
mental commitment to do well at the Slams.
Now, for a look at the future: The two young
bucks of the future appear to be Lleyton Hewitt
and Marat Safin. They are vastly different
players: Safin is stong, with a 6-foot-4 body
made to hit winners. Hewitt is a cross between
Andre Agassi and Michael Chang. He is a
counterpuncher, but extremely tough mentally --
a rare commodity these days.
Other very young guys who already compete
decently on the tour are Belgium's Xavier
Malisse, Frenchman Arnaud di Pasquale and
Switzerland's Roger Federer. But certainly
Hewitt and Safin stand out right now. Of that
crop, we say watch out for Hewitt. He could
surprise with a great run to the final weekend of
the Aussie Open in January.